tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-78303115681481280942024-02-08T08:39:35.446-05:00Leslie Evans ThorneUnleash Potential. Leverage Talent. Create Meaningful Work.Leslie Evans Thornehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12566420194668538733noreply@blogger.comBlogger15125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7830311568148128094.post-88222027225994030742011-04-05T07:00:00.000-04:002011-04-05T07:00:58.874-04:00Watch the Unemployment Number Go Down<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">Yesterday, Fox News reported that Starbucks will create 700,000 jobs. The company will spend $581 million on these jobs, which range from restaurant workers to senior managers.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">This will have a material impact on the unemployment number. You'll see it go down. It really doesn't mean that the situation will have changed much. There are still 14 million Americans who are not working.</span>Leslie Evans Thornehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12566420194668538733noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7830311568148128094.post-11758608532400183362011-03-21T15:22:00.013-04:002011-03-21T15:30:28.327-04:00Where have all the jobs gone?<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">We're all wondering...</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Where have all the jobs gone?</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In the last 10 years, the United States has lost 1/3 of its manufacturing jobs. We know that many of them have been outsourced and moved off-shore. They've gone to India, China, Malaysia, and Mexico. And, they're not coming back.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Some have been lost to automation, computers, technology. Recently I had a client who was working on a manufacturing line whose job was replaced by...a robot.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">It's not just manufacturing jobs that are disappearing.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">14 million people are unemployed in this country, giving us an official unemployment rate of 8.9%, according to the </span><a href="http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Bureau of Labor Statistics</span></a><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> March report.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">We also know that this statistic, as horrible as it seems, represents an under-reporting of the real situation. That's why the Department of Labor has engineered a new statistic -- the <em>Underemployment Rate</em> -- which includes the "discouraged" workers, those who have given up looking for a job and have fallen off the unemployment rolls because of chronic long-term employment and the "underemployed," those people who have taken part-time jobs or projects because they are unable to find a full-time position.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The underemployment rate is 20%, or 1 in 5 workers.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">That's pretty bad. One in five American workers can't find an appropriate full-time position. Is that because we are still in the Great Recession, or is there another explanation? Is there a silver lining amidst all this dire economic news? I believe so.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Stay tuned for tomorrow's post...</span>Leslie Evans Thornehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12566420194668538733noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7830311568148128094.post-25588032749886761782010-12-29T10:21:00.005-05:002011-01-03T06:32:31.684-05:00Technology & Change: From Kodachrome to Twitter<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">There are two articles of note in today's <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/">New York Times</a>. While at first glance, these articles seem to be completely unrelated, they are intricately connected. Keep reading...</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In the first article -- <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/30/us/30film.html?nl=todaysheadlines&emc=tha23">For Kodachrome Fans, Road Ends at Photo Lab in Kansas</a>, you'll read about how the last photo lab to develop Kodachrome film is about to close. How can that be? I think I still have a roll of film in the back of my top drawer that I was hoping to develop someday. Think about that: in a very short period of time, digital cameras have so dominated the market that Kodak has stopped producing the chemicals needed to process the film. Certainly this marks the end of an era for those of us raised on Kodachrome color film. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial;">The second article -- <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/30/us/30airlines.html?nl=todaysheadlines&emc=tha23">For Some Travelers Stranded in Airports, Relief is in 140 Characters</a> -- relates how those air travelers who used Twitter to rebook cancelled flights had a much higher likelihood of getting new reservations successfully. For people who tried to reach the help desk by phone, it took 2 days. Calling is old-fashioned.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial;">Just think about the speed of change that technology brings, and the demand for us to adapt quickly. Out with Kodachrome and in with Twitter!</span>Leslie Evans Thornehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12566420194668538733noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7830311568148128094.post-45312822297569718302010-06-22T15:04:00.005-04:002010-06-22T16:42:07.619-04:00Work is Play...Or Can Be<span style="font-family:verdana;">When Emily (my niece) was three, she made up this rhyme for me:<br /><br />Can't play today.<br />Have to work during the day.<br /><br />Wow, at three years old, she knew the difference between work and play. Play was fun.<br />Work kept you from playing and having fun.<br />One or the other. Either/or.<br /><br />Yesterday I posted a video on <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_0">Facebook</span> and asked the following question: If I am at the pool, getting ready to swim, and planning out an article in my mind as I prepare to get in the water, am I at work...or play?<br /><br />I loved the responses! Some of you said "both work and play," that I was working while having fun and having fun while working. Others of you said, it could be neither, depending on my frame of mind, as it could be stressful for me to swim! Good point. Most of us make a clear delineation between work and play. It's one or the other. So, here's the real question: why can't work BE play?<br /><br />Why can't work be so much fun that it not only feels like play, but becomes play? Work can be fun. I have a friend who says: "Work is something adults made up as an excuse to play with each other."<br /><br />What is work? When I looked it up in the dictionary, I found these words: drudgery, labor, and toil. Yuck. That doesn't sound good.<br /><br />What does work mean to you? Does it mean performing a task or a collection of tasks in order to collect a salary so that you can pay your bills? Most of us are told, at a young age, that if we're to be successful, we need to get serious, be practical and work hard. For most of us, work means having a job.<br /><br />Work will always require effort towards some end state or goal. It usually involves desire, commitment and discipline. At the same time, work can be play. Play is fun, creative, and imaginative; it's an activity that energizes, refreshes and inspires. It doesn't have to deplete or exhaust. Work is the ability to express who you are in the world -- all your talents, innate abilities and gifts -- and get paid for it. Work is a spiritual act.<br /></span><span style="font-family:arial;"></span>Leslie Evans Thornehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12566420194668538733noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7830311568148128094.post-9518735966371586612010-01-11T07:22:00.002-05:002011-01-03T06:44:51.636-05:00Challenge Conventional Wisdom<span style="font-family: verdana;"><strong><em>“The conventional wisdom is often wrong…conventional<br />
wisdom is often shoddily formed and devilishly difficult to see through, but it can be done.” (from the book</em> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_0">Freakonomics</span>)</strong><br />
Conventional wisdom is a commonly-accepted set of beliefs, assumptions, and interpretations of data to which a majority of people subscribe, usually without thinking, and often unquestioned. It plays a large part in how we see and interpret our world. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: verdana;">Much of it is created by fleeting observations, which we accept at face value, seeing only external manifestations or symptoms, rather than diving down to find fundamental causes. This is followed by applying superficial assumptions, based on simplistic reasoning, which, we blindly accept. Whether it’s because of our caffeine-enhanced, hurried lifestyle, our steady diet of prefabricated news bites, or our general lack of intellectual curiosity, we fail to question, try and probe.<br />
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These flimsy assumptions form the basis of conventional wisdom, which becomes insulated by interpretations that are repeated over and over and over until they are accepted by most as fact. And, there we have it – the birth of conventional wisdom!</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana;">On this blog, I am going to create "Conventional Wisdom Challenges" or <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_1">CWCs</span>.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana;">Here's how it will work: On the days of a "Conventional Wisdom Challenge", I will put in the Blog Title <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_2">CWC</span>: and the name of the post. That way, you'll know when it's a "Conventional Wisdom Challenge."</span> <br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana;">On those days, I will submit pieces of data, along with the commonly-accepted interpretations, based in conventional wisdom. The, I will post a question designed to help you think for yourself. Challenge assumptions. Intuit. Create your own interpretions. Think of it as a game. It will be fun!</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana;">My job is to provide the data, the conventional wisdom surrounding the data, and to pose the question which inspires you to see outside-the-conventional-wisdom-box. Your job is to come up with your own interpretation based on what you see and how you think, independent of others. Any questions? Let's get going! </span>Leslie Evans Thornehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12566420194668538733noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7830311568148128094.post-80867916028333862642010-01-08T16:12:00.006-05:002010-01-09T11:05:31.899-05:00First Friday -- Unemployment Numbers<span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;">Hot off the press...</span><br /><span style="font-family:Trebuchet MS;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><strong>According to MSNBC: Economy Sheds More Jobs Than Expected</strong></span><br /><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><strong>Nation lost 85,000 jobs in December; unemployment rate flat at 10 percent</strong></span><br /><br /><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;">Let's talk about what this means, find our own interpretation, and challenge the explanations of the "experts." Certainly, it doesn't look good when we "lost" 85,000 jobs in December. Traditionally, the holiday season has been a great time for seasonal hiring in retail, which usually creates a kind of spike in "job creation." But, we lost jobs. So, what does it all mean?</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><em>"The economy lost more jobs than expected in December while the unemployment rate held steady at 10 percent, as a sluggish economic recovery has yet to revive hiring among the nation's employers. "</em></span><br /><br /><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;">The question is: why did the economy "lose" more jobs than expected in December when the economic indicators point to improving conditions? No one seems to know. That's why experts have coined the term "jobless recovery." As you know from what I've written before, I believe that we "lost" more jobs because not only are jobs disappearing, but because the whole concept of a job, as a way to package up work, a form of work, is disappearing. Jobs are devolving, unraveling, into project-based work. </span><br /><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;">Next, we read that "the unemployment rate held steady at 10 percent...followed by the explanation that "a sluggish economic recovery has yet to revive hiring among nation's employers." The assumption is that along with an economic recovery comes an increase in job creation. That makes sense. Economic conditions improve, businesses get more orders, need to hire more people to fulfill the orders to make the products, and so begin to start hiring again. </span><br /><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><br />Except that we don’t really make a lot of things any more. We have moved away from predominantly a manufacturing-based economy to service-oriented economy. We continue to offshore our manufacturing jobs, and, in fact, have lost one-third of this country’s manufacturing jobs since the year 2000. That’s incredible. These jobs are not coming back, no matter how great the economy gets.<br /><br />We need to watch the tendency to interpret data through a traditional lens, trying to make sense of data points as though they were static, without taking into account the shifting social and economic landscape swirling around us. We need to look at economic indicators within the context of change. Statisticians have a propensity and preference for benchmarking data points against markers from the past, called past predictors, but this method doesn’t work in a dynamic marketplace where the past is no predictor of the future.<br /><br />Why aren't jobs being created? Let’s suppose that even within a service economy, there is plenty of work that needs to be done...but it's not getting packaged up in terms of jobs. There are large disincentives for employers to create new jobs, the largest of which is cost. It's expensive to create jobs. Typically, it costs an employer 38% above a new hire’s salary just to provide benefits, most of which is health care cost. And, that number doesn’t take into account the rising costs of unemployment and other types of insurance.<br /><br />Bottom-line: employers are not in the position to create jobs. It's too dang expensive. It’s easier to hire temp workers. And, that’s not necessarily a bad thing.<br /><br /><em>"</em></span><a style="FONT-WEIGHT: normal! important; FONT-SIZE: 100%! important; COLOR: darkgreen! important; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent! important; TEXT-DECORATION: none! important" href="http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/34764269/ns/business-stocks_and_economy" target="_blank" itxtdid="15996293"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><em>The Labor Department</em></span></a><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><em> said Friday that employers cut 85,000 jobs last month, worse than the 8,000 drop analysts expected."</em></span><br /><br /><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;">Why are employers continuing to cut jobs? One reason is that business credit continues to be tight, despite what you hear from Washington. </span><br /><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"><br />Banks aren't lending, and even if they want to lend, they are being prevented from doing so by overzealous regulators who have been given orders rigidly to enforce existing rules and procedures, a kind of over-reaction to lax regulation of the past, and without taking into consideration the exigencies of the present. While this may sound good because we need strong enforcement of existing regulation, it's not. What this means is that banks cannot be flexible with their customers and are foreclosing on customers who have just hit a "tight corner" on liquidity and need some flexibility. More on this tomorrow...<br /><br />Against this credit backdrop, to prevent bankruptcy and cash flow problems, companies are being forced to cut expenses, drastically, just to stay alive. One strategy is to cut back on employees' hours. The average American work week has been reduced to something like 33 hours. If more severe measures are needed, employers are being forced to cut jobs, which usually include benefit packages costing 38% over salary costs. Wouldn't you eliminate a job and hire a part-time person, at a lower cost and with no benefits, in order to keep your company afloat?<br /><br />"<em>A sharp drop in the labor force, a sign more of the jobless are giving up on their search for work, kept the unemployment rate at the same rate as in November. Once people stop looking for jobs, they are no longer counted among the unemployed. "<br /></em><br />Gee, this is interesting. Most people I know don't just "give up" in their search for work. They are unable to find work, usually because they can't find jobs that were similar to the ones they left. This is true for two categories of workers: 1) skilled manufacturing jobs, people who worked on a manufacturing line that moved offshore. These jobs aren't coming back and until we start getting the "green" jobs funded -- solar energy, natural gas exploration and "green" construction, there won't be much employment, and even then, these jobs will be limited. 2) Middle level management, white collar workers whose jobs either have been eliminated permanently as companies go leaner in their management structure, or whose jobs have been replaced by skilled workers overseas in Dublin, Mumbai and Singapore. These people are in a bind as they are overqualified for the jobs that are being created -- at Taco Bell, Wal-mart and Chucky Cheese. It's no wonder that they appear to "drop out" of the job market.<br /><br />Despite the dire picture…it’s not all bad news. It’s just gonna look a whole lot different from before. Keep reading to find out how to uncover opportunities today...</span>Leslie Evans Thornehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12566420194668538733noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7830311568148128094.post-70061951717020291162010-01-05T12:03:00.006-05:002010-01-05T12:36:53.519-05:00More than One Career?<span style="font-family:verdana;">Question: Can you pursue more than one career path at one time?</span><br /><span style="font-family:verdana;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:verdana;">Last night, I had supper with a friend, who wanted me to meet her daughter.</span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;">It seems that her daughter has several career paths from which to choose -- fashion designer, singer and actress. She asked me which one I thought she ought to pursue. I told her to focus on the one for which she had the greatest passion. She said she liked that answer.</span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;">But, the truth is, she can try to pursue all of them simultaneously. Today I received an email from a friend who has invited me to her art opening. She paints and she makes jewelry, but she is also a business coach.</span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;">Since when do you need to have one, all-encompassing career? You don't.</span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;">As a career coach, I have often heard my clients say that they wish they knew what they wanted to do from a young age, that they envied people who knew from the time they were 5 that they wanted to be a doctor, or a lawyer, or a teacher, or whatever. It would be easier, they said. </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">These clients told me that they had multiple interests, and were often told by others that they were "all over the place."</span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;">So, where did we get the idea that we had to pick just one? That's what conventional wisdom says. But, it's not true any more. Here are some examples:</span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;">Oprah - she is a talk show host, an actress, a TV show producer, magazine founder and owner</span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;">Rachel Ray - television personality, author, chef</span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;">Serena Williams - tennis player & fashion designer</span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;">Of course, these are just 3 examples of highly-publicized celebrities. What they share is their ability to leverage a brand -- their own brand.</span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;">So, my question is: why can't the rest of us have a brand in the world and work on activities that reflect and support our own brand? We can.</span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;">I have helped hundreds of clients find ways to pursue more than one interest -- and to make money from each. Stay tuned...</span>Leslie Evans Thornehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12566420194668538733noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7830311568148128094.post-14774503395125506202010-01-03T11:10:00.000-05:002011-01-03T06:12:13.713-05:00Bono's Top Ten List<div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Did you see Bono's Top Ten List?</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana;">The Sunday New York Times asked Bono to write a top ten list for 2010. It's called <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/03/opinion/03bono.html?th&emc=th">Ten for the Next Ten</a>. (1/3/10)</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana;">Take a look at #2: </span><span style="font-family: Verdana;">Intellectual Property Developers</span></div><br />
Perhaps movie moguls will succeed where musicians and their moguls have failed so far, and rally America to defend the most creative economy in the world, where music, film, TV and video games help to account for nearly 4 percent of gross domestic product. <br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana;">People who generate intellectual property will help to drive America's economy. We may not manufacture things any more, but we lead the world in innovation and creativity. </span><br />
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<div></div>Leslie Evans Thornehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12566420194668538733noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7830311568148128094.post-34062876814301806672010-01-01T13:41:00.003-05:002010-01-05T11:59:57.101-05:00Andre Agassi and You...<span style="font-family:arial;">Happy New Year! </span><br /><br /><span style="font-family:arial;">Today I want to talk about Andre Agassi. </span><span style="font-family:arial;">He's just written a new book, his autobiography, entitled -- <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Open-Autobiography-Andre-Agassi/dp/0307268195/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1262645359&sr=1-1">OPEN.: An Autobiography</a>. My sister gave it to me for Christmas.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family:Arial;">You've probably heard about the book. The media focused on two parts: 1) he wore a wig during the French Open and 2) he did crystal meth. While both of those things are true, according to what's written, this sensational reporting misses the point. The book is about so much more...It's about Andre's struggle with himself, on and off the court, through his relationship with his father and his brother, his first wife Brooke Shields and his current wife Steffi Graf, his coach Nick Bollettieri and forever trainer and friend, Gil Reyes, all in an attempt to become who he is, to be true to himself. </span><br /><br /><span style="font-family:Arial;">I've always loved Andre Agassi. Not for his flamboyant style, not for his individual brand of tennis, nor for his unique, pigeon-toed walk, but because... </span><br /><br /><span style="font-family:Arial;">Andre Agassi aspires to be true to himself. And, that inspires me to be who I am. Stripped down and no pretense. Just me.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family:Arial;">That's what I wish for you this 2010. To be true to yourself. To just be you. To exercise who you are in the world, not in relation to others, but in relation to yourself, to that inner voice that you hear when everything and everyone else is silent. To walk to the beat of your own drummer. To live from the soul. To be...you. </span><br /><br /><span style="font-family:Arial;">Some people may say to be self-actualized is a selfish pursuit, but I say no. Because when you have gotten yourself right, you have more to give to others. Think of what Andre Agassi has given to the world of tennis, how he shaped the tennis world, through his unique brand of playing, his clothes, his look, not through any specific intention to do so, but simply as a result of being authentically himself. Think of how much he has contributed to the world of education with his charter school and through other charitable contributions. </span><br /><span style="font-family:Arial;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:Arial;">How much can you shape the world just by being...you? </span><br /><span style="font-family:Arial;"></span>Leslie Evans Thornehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12566420194668538733noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7830311568148128094.post-14833140254622592102009-12-31T16:44:00.003-05:002010-01-09T11:04:23.546-05:00"Jobless Recovery": Your Interpretation...and MineYesterday I told you about an NPR radio show, where comments were made about the "jobless recovery." Three observations were shared, along with the traditional, conventional interpretations, which I shared with you. I asked you to examine the statements and asked you to come up with some of your own.<br /><br />Here are the statements and follow up questions:<br /><br />1. Economists are reporting positive indications of an improving economy, while unemployment statistics are still grim, leading to the term "jobless recovery". If the economy is improving, why are few or no jobs being created?<br /><br />It's expensive to hire someone new. Did you know that it costs an employer 38% over and above an employee's salary to provide benefits? That's expensive. Companies don't want to commit that kind of money when they don't have to. Unemployment insurance is becoming more expensive. That's another cost. And for many employers, there are additional headaches that come with bringing on new employees. Once an employer has hired someone new, it becomes difficult to let that person go -- legally and financially. These are just some of the disincentives for additional hiring. But there is another reason.<br /><br />According to an article in the Chicago Tribune, this country has lost 1/3 of its manufacturing jobs <em>since the year 2000</em>. Those jobs have moved offshore -- and they are not coming back.<br /><br />The good news is that there is plenty of work that needs to be done: it's just getting packaged up differently. Fewer jobs, plenty of work. Why? Because jobs are devolving into projects. There has been an astronomical rise in the amount of project-based work that's available in the marketplace, upwards of 50% of work available.<br /><br />The good news is that jobs, which we measure, aren't being created, but projects are. Let's start taking stock of project-based work. In America, work has always meant having a job. Maybe we need to start thinking differently about work in this country.<br /><br />2. While some people are getting jobs, the long-term unemployed (defined as being unemployed over 6 months) are having the toughest time finding jobs.<br /><br />My take? Because the jobs -- and specifically, the types of jobs -- we are losing are not coming back. Those factory line jobs, from Detroit to <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_0">Dubuque</span>, are not coming back and those who lost their jobs 2 years ago are still not able to find part-time or project-based manufacturing work. When the green jobs movement gets traction, this statistic will change as folks get retrained.<br /><br />3. Statistics point to a surge in temporary hiring, and that this surge is used as an early indicator for rising employment.<br /><br />Conventional wisdom says that a surge in temporary hiring is a predictor for the creation of new jobs as employers take on new workers on a trial basis, with the intention of moving them to full-time if they "prove out." I disagree. I just don't see the incentive for companies, big or small, Fortune 500 to mom-and-pop, to hire full-time workers in packages called jobs. Why should they create jobs when it is so easy to to hire "just-in-time-workers" on a temporary basis?<br />This surge in temporary employment is consonant with the rise in project-based work.<br /><br />Your thoughts?Leslie Evans Thornehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12566420194668538733noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7830311568148128094.post-31185136374441593622009-12-30T06:57:00.004-05:002010-01-09T11:03:17.260-05:00"Jobless Recovery": Traditional InterpretationsIt’s almost 2010…what’s ahead?<br /><br />Last night, as I was driving along a country road, I listened to a program on NPR. They were talking about the “jobless recovery.”<br /><br />What is a “jobless recovery”? It seems to be a situation where the economic indicators are improving, while unemployment numbers remain unchanged, or worse, on the rise.<br /><br />There were 3 statements that I would like for you to consider:<br /><br />According to the guest, there seems to be a dichotomy between the economists, who measure the state of the economy by looking at certain metrics, and politicians, who tend to evaluate it based on what they hear from their constituents, many of whom are still unemployed. Economists look at traditional statistical data such as: the GDP (gross domestic product, the dollar value of all goods and services produced in the US in a year), CPI (consumer price index, tracking the prices of certain products, housing starts, the stock market, and tell us that things are improving. Politicians tell us that many of their constituents are still unemployed. (In fact, we've lost 11 million jobs during this recessionary time.) That's why we have the term "jobless recovery."<br /><br />Seems like a contradictory term to me. Why is that? Why are there no jobs or few jobs being created while the economy is showing signs of recovery? Why are economists seeing one thing and politicians another? Why the difference?<br /><br />The second fact reported was that while some people are getting jobs, the long-term unemployed (defined as being unemployed over 6 months) are having the toughest time finding jobs. This may seem obvious as the longer one is unemployed, conventional wisdom has it, the more <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_0">difficult</span> it becomes, and there are some people in the job market who are simply "unemployable." But, this time around, this group is having an even more difficult time, than the long time unemployed during other recessions.<br /><br />Again, my question to you: why are those people in the longest unemployed group having the most difficult time ever finding jobs, and more difficult than ever before?<br /><br />Finally, the third point: statistics point to a surge in temporary hiring, and that this surge is used as an early indicator for rising employment.<br /><br />My question is: what is the meaning of a surge in temporary hiring? Is it predictive? Is it good news, or not?<br /><br />I wanted to pose these questions to you in an effort to get you to think about the employment situation and unemployment statistics. I have given you three sets of facts to consider. What is the "correct" interpretation of these facts?<br /><br />The current interpretations are mostly based on conventional wisdom, and looking at the data through a traditional lens. I will share these with you tomorrow. In the meantime, I would like to encourage you to think it through for yourself. Developed critical thinking is one of the two most important skills for the next decade. Practice this ability and create your own interpretation.<br /><br />And, I'll be back tomorrow... :o)Leslie Evans Thornehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12566420194668538733noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7830311568148128094.post-50322359888764454392009-10-09T12:31:00.002-04:002010-02-11T13:09:35.231-05:00The Secret Skill......think for yourself.Leslie Evans Thornehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12566420194668538733noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7830311568148128094.post-58087889769277991182009-10-09T10:27:00.012-04:002010-01-08T13:00:55.985-05:00Debunking Myths About Being Out of Work...<span style="font-family:Verdana;">Yesterday, as I was running out of the Marriott Hotel to catch my plane, I picked up a F*R*E*E* copy of <strong><em>USA Today</em></strong>.</span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;">On the front page of the business section, I saw this headline: <strong>Being unemployed 6 months or more grinds on you --</strong></span><strong><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;"></span></strong><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;">Well, of course it does. It's very disheartening to look and look and look and not be able to find a job. It can be debilitating to the self-esteem and devastating to finances. </span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;">So, it certainly doesn't help when one runs into a kind of conventional wisdom that worsens the situation. Consider this quote from the article...</span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;">"The rub: the longer someone is out of work, the more likely he or she will continue to be. Skills erode: gaps on resumes widen."</span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;">Rubbish. Once you have developed a skill, you'll always have it. Sure, you may get rusty over time if you don't use the skill, but it will always be a part of you and you can always get it back. It's like riding a bike. You'll never forget how. So, please don't buy into the "belief" that if you are out of work and not using a particular skill, it will "erode." </span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;">This is especially true for stay-at-home moms. Just because you haven't used a skill in 10 years doesn't mean that it's gone. Look at Meryl <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_0">Streep</span>. How long was she away from the screen when she was raising her children? 10 years? More? And, when she came back to film, had her skill diminished? No. She is just as fabulous today in "Julie and Julia" as she was in "Sophie's Choice." No <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_1">diminishment</span> of her acting skill. </span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;">So, let's us -- you and me -- just dismiss that misplaced conventional wisdom that if you don't use a skill, it will erode. I call such "accepted wisdom" nothing more than "educated myths," which operate as "unexamined beliefs" with most people accepting them as true on face value. Please don't do that to yourself. It's hard enough to keep your spirits up when you are looking for a job. Please don't accept "educated myths" for yourself. You have the power to examine the underlying assumptions and to dismiss them. Think for yourself.</span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;"></span>Leslie Evans Thornehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12566420194668538733noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7830311568148128094.post-66751231113252933852009-10-06T08:14:00.008-04:002009-10-09T12:35:32.668-04:00Think For Yourself!: Skills for the New Economy<span style="font-family:arial;"><span style="font-family:verdana;">The following NYTimes article caught my eye today: <strong><em><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/06/health/06mind.html?th&emc=th">How Nonsense Sharpens the Intellect</a></em></strong><br /><br /></span><span style="font-family:verdana;">This article reports that whenever you and I experience something out of the ordinary, something bizarre even that we can’t explain, we struggle to make sense of it.<br /><br />When observing something unusual that we can’t interpret through a traditional lens or logical explanation, we feel off-balance, strange, or as the article reports, “disoriented.” But, it is precisely this feeling of disorientation that inspires us to make sense of the situation because we are wired to seek balance and to move away from things that make us feel uncomfortable. With this drive, we move beyond traditional assumptions, logical interpretations and patterns to try to make sense of what our physical senses have presented.<br /></span><br /></span><span style="font-family:verdana;">For example, I have written about how, when I flew to Vancouver, British Columbia for the first time, I saw a pink mountain. A pink mountain? And, I tried to reason through what I had seen. Mountains aren’t pink. (It was the sunset reflecting off the glaciers of Mount Baker.)<br /><br />According to two researchers at the University of British Columbia, our brains are programmed for maintaining meaning and coherence. “The brain evolved to predict, and it does so by identifying patterns."<br /><br />"When those patterns break down – as when a hiker stumbles across an easy chair sitting deep in the woods, as if dropped form the sky – the brain gropes for something, anything that makes sense. It may retreat to a familiar ritual, like checking equipment. But it may also turn its attention outward, the researchers argue, and notice, say, a pattern in animal tracks that was previously hidden. The urge to find a coherent pattern makes it more likely that the brain will find one.”<br /><br />What does this article have to do with you and me? Everything.<br /><br />In this world of unprecedented change, past predictors are less relevant. For example, using the stock market – which is made up of 70% flash trading and short-selling – has little relevance to the health of the economy. The price of a company’s shares has little to do with a company’s health or strength. (I have watched a stock move up and down 15 points in 45 minutes. That has nothing to do with a company’s earnings and everything to do with hedge funds and traders moving billions of dollars in and out of the market ...in a flash!)<br /><br />Unemployment figures are also an unreliable measurement tool: the way the Department of Labor calculates its number is flawed. Most of the data comes from phone surveys. Long-term unemployed and underemployed aren’t included in the number.<br /><br />So, what can you do to figure out what’s happening in the economy? Our traditional economic patterns are breaking down, and we need to stop the “retreat to a familiar ritual”, like using traditional cyclical economic indicators which have little predictive value in a world that is getting rocked by massive secular and social change. We need to “look outward” and notice “patterns…that were previously hidden” or at least not obvious. You can do this.<br /><br />You need to think for yourself and try to make sense of the world. That way you can anticipate and make cogent plans. Develop and use your critical thinking skills.<br /><br />What is the state of the economy? Don’t measure it by “retreating to a familiar ritual” and looking to the stock market and unemployment. Look for patterns by piecing together information that you can find in the news.<br /><br />What I do is to look for pieces of data that I can fit into a picture to make sense of the world. For example: I have been reading that the ARM option mortgages are shortly coming due and that many experts believe this default situation will be worst than the subprime mortgage crisis.<br /><br />I also believe that the state of bank’s balance sheets is worse than most of us know, especially those who have real estate loans on the books. According to what I have been reading, we are about to see a crisis in the commercial real estate market – and certainly retail shops have been hit hard and malls all over America are suffering. I also know that in places like Nevada, Florida and parts of California, the real estate situation is really bad. In Florida, almost 50% of the real estate on the market is either in foreclosure or short sale (meaning that the mortgage on the property is more than the value of the house). In many cases, the banks aren’t foreclosing on properties officially because that means they would have to carry reserves on their books to offset the foreclosure, which means that banks are potentially worse off than they are reporting.<br /><br />And, on and on and on...My prediction? The Great Recession is not over. Not even close. And, even to call it a Recession is to miss the great significance of this moment. We are going through a massive transformation of our economy, something as great as 150 years ago when we witnessed the beginning of the Industrial Revolution. This is a new revolution. What our economy will look like in the future is any one's guess. Personally, I am optimistic in the long term about the state of our economy. Short term, I think there will be more pain.<br /><br />Here's what you need to know: one of the two MOST IMPORTANT skillsets you need in the coming economy is <strong>critical thinking skills</strong>. Forget old models. Start reading and piecing together information into a pattern that makes sense to you. It doesn’t matter if you are not an expert. Experts have a more difficult time seeing things freshly and in many ways, are handicapped by their educated focus.<br /><br />Ask questions. Challenge assumptions. Think for yourself. Make sense of the world.<br /><br />And, come back to find out the second most important skill in today’s economy…<br /></span>Leslie Evans Thornehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12566420194668538733noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7830311568148128094.post-69933575588452246692009-09-07T08:00:00.001-04:002009-09-08T09:13:40.087-04:00Labor Day<span style="font-family:arial;">It's Labor Day...</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family:arial;">Today is a day where we honor the collective effort of workers who have contributed to the prosperity of this country. </span><span style="font-family:arial;">(Personally, I've always loved this day because it was the last holiday before school started.)</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family:arial;">So, it's the perfect time for me to start this blog. Why? Because I will use this space to start a conversation with you about work, jobs, the economy -- and what it means for you. I'll be sharing my thoughts about what's really happening in the world of work, to help explain what looks like a very scary and chaotic picture. We'll talk about about jobs and work, traditional and non-traditional employment. </span><br /><br /><span style="font-family:arial;">My goal is to help you think differently about work in today's times so that you can generate new options for yourself. We'll talk about how to find work in this "jobless" recovery. (BTW, what exactly is a "jobless" recovery?)</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family:arial;">Since this is intended to be a conversation, I would like to hear what you have to say. Please let me know what you think by posting comments and leaving messages. This blog is not a one-way street talk. Thanks.</span><br /><span style="font-family:arial;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:arial;">P.S. Who am I? Basically, I'm someone who has spent over 15 years helping people figure out how to find and get paid for work they enjoy doing. Some call me a career coach, others an outplacement counselor, and still others a life coach. Whatever the label, I help people to connect to what they enjoy doing so that they can make a living doing what they love...based on who they are. Even in this economy. Especially in this economy.</span>Leslie Evans Thornehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12566420194668538733noreply@blogger.com0